San Diego County housing market data

San Diego County prices are holding up while sales slow. The median home sold for $912,957 in September 2026, 1.4% more than a year earlier, but 1,939 homes changed hands, 8.8% fewer than in September 2025. Pending sales, the deals that will close over the next month or two, were down 16.1% on a year earlier, so the slowdown in closings has further to run.

The main reason is borrowing costs. Freddie Mac's average 30-year rate was 7.24% in the week of October 29, 2026, up from 6.50% in early September 2025. On the county's median home with 20% down, that difference adds about $360 a month to principal and interest. The California Association of Realtors (C.A.R.) said statewide sales fell in September because "rising mortgage rates and persistent affordability challenges weighed on buyer demand."

Supply is not the problem it was. New listings were up 6.5% on a year earlier, and homes for sale were flat (6,014 against 6,005). With fewer buyers taking those homes, months of supply rose from 2.8 to 3.1.

The headline median also hides a split by property type. Single-family homes rose 6.6% in a year to a median of $1,065,796, condos rose 1.5% to $624,432, and townhouses fell 7.8%. Buyers who can still afford a detached house are paying more for one, while the attached market, where buyers are more rate-sensitive, has softened. Part of the drop from August's $965,000 to September's $912,957 is that mix: single-family homes fell from 65.8% of sales in August to 63.7% in September, and a month with fewer houses in the mix pulls the overall median down.

Still a seller's market, but a weaker one than a year ago. By the usual rule of thumb, under 4 months of supply favors sellers, 4 to 6 is balanced and over 6 favors buyers. San Diego County had 3.1 months in September 2026 (Redfin), and C.A.R.'s single-family measure was 3.3 months.

Other signs point the same way. Homes sold at 98.9% of list price on average, the same as a year earlier, and 29.1% sold above list, up from 26.4%. A median home went under contract in 33 days, faster than the 37 days a year before and faster than California overall (41 days). Neighboring counties are slower: 47 days in Orange County and 56 in Riverside County.

What has shifted is buyer depth. With pending sales down 16% and supply rising, well-priced homes still sell quickly, but overpriced ones sit. If supply passes 4 months, the market moves into balanced territory.

The published forecasts expect prices to stay roughly flat, not fall sharply. We don't make our own forecast; here is what others project.

Zillow's forecast for the San Diego metro

Zillow's home value forecast, published with its September 2026 data, projects San Diego metro home values 0.4% lower by December 2026 and 0.9% higher by September 2027. For comparison, it projects the Los Angeles metro 1.9% higher and the Riverside metro 0.3% higher over the same year.

C.A.R.'s forecast for California

C.A.R.'s 2027 forecast, released October 7, 2026, projects the statewide median single-family price up 1.4% to $894,400 in 2027, with sales up 3.7%. It assumes the 30-year mortgage rate averages 6.6%. Rates are currently higher than that (7.24%), so if they stay where they are, sales are likely to come in below C.A.R.'s projection.

What would change the picture

Lower rates would bring back buyers who have stepped away, which would support prices. A rise in listings without a matching rise in buyers would do the opposite. Insurance is a local wildcard: where homeowners policies are hard to get, buyers price that in.

The numbers don't look like a bubble about to burst, but prices are stretched against incomes. The county median sale price is about 8.4 times the median household income of $108,754 (Census ACS 2024), far above the roughly 3 to 5 times often seen as affordable. That stretch is why sales are falling.

The features of past crashes are mostly missing. Prices have risen about 4.9% in total since June 2023, not the double-digit yearly jumps of 2004 to 2006. Supply is 3.1 months, not the 10-plus months of 2008. And most owners have fixed-rate mortgages and substantial equity, so forced sales are rare. A slow, flat market is the more likely result of high prices and high rates than a sudden fall.

It depends on your timeline and payment, not on timing the market. Points in a buyer's favor now:

• More choice. New listings are up 6.5% on a year ago, and supply has risen to 3.1 months.
• Room to negotiate on some homes. Townhouse prices are down 7.8% in a year, and homes that miss the market are sitting longer.
• Less competition. Pending sales are down 16% on a year ago.

Points against: rates are higher than a year ago, and single-family prices are still rising (6.6%). The working rule most advisers give is to buy when the monthly payment fits your budget at today's rate and you expect to stay five years or more, rather than waiting for a drop that the forecasts above don't predict.

Conditions still favor sellers who price accurately. Homes sell in a median 33 days at 98.9% of list price, and nearly a third went under contract within two weeks. Single-family sellers are getting more than a year ago.

The risk is overpricing into a slowing market. With pending sales down 16%, a home listed above recent comparable sales may sit, and a price cut after a few weeks usually costs more than pricing right at the start. Spring has historically been the strongest season in the county; see the best-month table below.

City of San Diego and Coronado

2,596 homes sold in the three months; median prices run from $979,034 in San Diego to $2,625,750 in Coronado. San Diego ($979,034), Coronado ($2,625,750).

North County Coastal

1,006 homes sold in the three months; median prices run from $869,586 in Oceanside to $3,508,329 in Del Mar. Oceanside local guide ($869,586), Carlsbad local guide ($1,548,263), Encinitas local guide ($2,059,019), Solana Beach ($1,999,048), Del Mar ($3,508,329).

North County Inland

974 homes sold in the three months; median prices run from $799,619 in Escondido to $5,277,487 in Rancho Santa Fe. Escondido ($799,619), San Marcos ($957,044), Vista ($874,584), Poway ($1,225,416), Fallbrook ($954,545), San Diego Country Estates ($801,368), Lake San Marcos ($1,139,957), Valley Center ($964,041), Ramona ($823,608), Rancho Santa Fe ($5,277,487), Hidden Meadows ($974,536), Bonsall ($1,322,370), Fairbanks Ranch ($5,047,596).

East County

820 homes sold in the three months; median prices run from $733,651 in Lemon Grove to $1,123,965 in Casa de Oro-Mount Helix. El Cajon ($749,643), Santee ($769,633), La Mesa ($841,599), Spring Valley ($749,643), Casa de Oro-Mount Helix ($1,123,965), La Presa ($764,636), Rancho San Diego ($939,553), Alpine ($1,097,977), Lemon Grove ($733,651), Lakeside ($757,139), Winter Gardens ($824,607), Bostonia ($742,147), Jamul ($924,560), Harbison Canyon ($884,579).

South Bay

501 homes sold in the three months; median prices run from $732,151 in National City to $1,081,985 in Bonita. Chula Vista ($849,096), Imperial Beach ($861,340), National City ($732,151), Bonita ($1,081,985).

Backcountry and desert

10 homes sold in the three months; median prices run $342,337. Borrego Springs ($342,337).

Property tax (Prop 13)

The base levy is 1% of assessed value. The assessed value is reset to the purchase price when a home sells, and after that it can rise by no more than 2% a year. Voter-approved bonds and local levies are added on top, so check the actual tax bill for the address. California State Board of Equalization: California Property Tax, An Overview.

Supplemental tax bill

After a purchase the county issues a supplemental bill for the difference between the old and new assessed value, separate from the regular bill and usually not paid through the mortgage escrow account. California State Board of Equalization: supplemental assessments.

Mello-Roos and special taxes

Many newer communities sit in Community Facilities Districts that levy a special tax, shown on the property tax bill. Sellers must disclose it; ask for the amount and how many years it runs. Mello-Roos Community Facilities Act, Government Code §53311.

Documentary transfer tax

Counties may charge $1.10 per $1,000 of the sale price when a property changes hands, and some cities add their own. The escrow company calculates it; who pays is negotiable. California Revenue and Taxation Code §11911.

Insurance is the other big cost: several insurers have stopped writing new policies in parts of California, and some owners in San Diego County rely on the state California FAIR Plan (California Department of Insurance). Get an insurance quote before you remove your contingencies.