What the Mill Valley price trend shows
Zillow's typical home value for Mill Valley was $2,178,610 in September 2026, 10.2% higher than a year earlier. That is still 2.4% below the peak of $2,232,263 set in June 2022. Over five years the gain is 12.3%, and over ten years 53.3%. In other words, values fell after 2022, spent three years recovering, and are now close to the old high.
Redfin's sale prices tell a noisier story because they count only homes that actually sold. For the whole 94941 ZIP, the median was $2,019,407 in the three months to September 2026, down 3.5% from $2,092,500 a year earlier. Houses alone were up 2.5% to $2,254,431.
Why Mill Valley's city and ZIP figures differ
Redfin's figure for the city of Mill Valley, $1,849,119 over the same three months, was down 19.6%, but it rests on just 38 sales. The 94941 ZIP also covers unincorporated Strawberry, Homestead Valley and Tam Valley and had 83 sales. A few large or small homes can swing a city median this size by hundreds of thousands of dollars, so the ZIP and Zillow figures are the better guide to direction.
Mill Valley rents are rising too
Zillow's observed rent for Mill Valley was $4,617 a month in September 2026, up 8.8% in a year and 28.6% in five years, just below August's record of $4,670. Over five years, rents have risen more than twice as fast as Zillow's typical home value.
Sale speed, price cuts and inventory in Mill Valley
How fast Mill Valley homes sell
In the three months to September 2026, homes in 94941 went under contract in a median 19 days, and 53.2% sold within two weeks (Redfin). The pace follows the seasons closely. The median was 11 days in the periods to May and June 2026, and 41 and 48 days in the winter periods to January and February.
Bidding above list price in Mill Valley
The average 94941 sale closed at 105.0% of list price in the three months to September, and 49.3% of homes sold above list. In the spring period to May the average reached 108.7%. For the wider San Francisco metro, Zillow reports a sale-to-list ratio of 106.1% in August 2026, and 21.2% of listings had a price cut in September, a sign that homes priced above the market still sit.
Mill Valley inventory and months of supply
Redfin counted 52 homes for sale in 94941 at the end of the September period, down 32.2% on a year earlier, and 1.9 months of supply. New listings fell 10.3% to 110. Fewer listings with steady sales is what keeps sellers in control here.
Mill Valley home prices by neighborhood
Zillow tracks 14 neighborhoods in and around Mill Valley. In September 2026 every one was up on a year earlier, but by very different amounts. Our Mill Valley neighborhoods guide profiles each area and the Mill Valley ZIP code page has the ZIP-level data.
| Neighborhood (Zillow) | Typical value, Sept 2026 | One-year change |
|---|---|---|
| Sycamore/Tamalpais Park | $2,877,254 | +15.9% |
| Tamalpais Valley | $1,990,233 | +13.3% |
| Muir Woods Park | $1,799,331 | +12.8% |
| Warner Canyon/Kite Hill | $2,984,557 | +12.6% |
| Downtown/Lytton Square | $2,224,971 | +6.9% |
| Cascade Canyon | $2,594,924 | +6.1% |
| Almonte | $1,869,539 | +5.6% |
| Bayfront/Enchanted Knolls/Shelter Ridge | $1,132,073 | +3.8% |
The pattern is that detached-house areas gained most and the condo-heavy bayfront area least, which matches Redfin's split between houses and condos below. The 94941 data page has the monthly Redfin history.
Houses, condos, the upper end and new homes in Mill Valley
Mill Valley houses vs condos
Houses drove the market: 62 of the 83 sales in 94941 in the three months to September 2026, at a median of $2,254,431 and $1,171.76 a square foot, with 57.3% selling above list. Condos had 13 sales at a median of $1,319,961, down 5.0%, and sold at 100.1% of list on average. Our Mill Valley condo guide covers the complexes.
Mill Valley townhouses
Only five townhouses sold in the period, at a median of $1,500,002 and 97.6% of list. That is too few for a trend, but it shows townhouses selling below asking even while houses sold well above it.
The upper end of the Mill Valley market
Five Zillow neighborhoods had typical values above $2.5 million in September 2026: Warner Canyon/Kite Hill, Scott Valley, Sycamore/Tamalpais Park, Blithedale Canyon and Cascade Canyon. The 94941 median peaked at $2,450,000 in the three months to May 2026, as sales climbed toward their June peak, so spring medians reflect more high-priced sales as well as stronger bidding.
New construction in Mill Valley
Very little is new. Census estimates show only 6.5% of the city's homes were built since 2010, and 28.2% before 1940. The biggest change ahead is in unincorporated Strawberry, where Marin County approved 337 homes plus senior housing on the former seminary land in June 2026, according to Bay City News. Construction is expected to take years, so it will not change supply soon.
Is now a good time to buy a home in Mill Valley?
It depends on your timing within the year more than on the year itself. Buyers had the most room in winter: in the period to February 2026, homes took a median 48 days to sell and closed at 100.3% of list, against 11 days and 108.7% in spring. Prices are close to their 2022 peak on Zillow's measure, so you are not buying at a discount.
Cost is the main barrier. At Freddie Mac's 7.24% rate (week of October 29, 2026), 20% down on the 94941 house median of $2,254,431 is about $450,886, and principal and interest on the rest come to about $12,291 a month before tax, insurance and parcel taxes. If you can buy, the late autumn and winter listings face less competition. Our first-time homebuyer guide covers state programs.
Is now a good time to sell a home in Mill Valley?
For most owners, yes, especially in spring. Supply is low, at 1.9 months in 94941, and half of homes sell above list. Owners who bought before 2016 have seen Zillow's typical value rise 53.3% over ten years. The trade-off is that selling usually means buying again in the same expensive market or leaving it. A long-time owner aged 55 or older may be able to carry their taxable value to a replacement home under Prop 19; see our Prop 19 guide and our capital gains guide before you list.
Mill Valley housing market outlook
We do not make our own forecast. The California Association of Realtors' 2027 forecast, released October 7, 2026, expects the statewide median to rise 1.4% to $894,400 in 2027 and sales to rise 3.7%. It assumes a 30-year mortgage rate of 6.6%, below the 7.24% Freddie Mac average at the end of October 2026; a higher rate is a risk the forecast does not assume. The forecast has no figures for Marin County or Mill Valley.
Locally, watch three things: the spring 2027 share of homes selling above list, the number of active listings in 94941, and Redfin's Marin County median, which was $1,496,651 in September 2026 (a provisional monthly figure), down 1.5% on a year earlier. See our California housing market guide for the statewide picture and our Mill Valley guide for buying and selling steps.