California housing market at a glance (fall 2026)
The California housing market in fall 2026 is slow and steady: prices are flat to slightly up, fewer homes are selling than a year ago, and homes take longer to sell than in the 2021 to 2023 rush. Here are the main readings, each from its own source.
Prices
Redfin's statewide median sale price was $752,837 in September 2026, about 1.0% above September 2025's $745,745. Zillow's typical home value was $761,538, up 0.6% over the year and about 2.1% below its January 2025 peak. The California Association of Realtors (C.A.R.) put the single-family median at $899,720, up 1.7%. For what the average home costs by county and city, see our average home price in California guide.
Sales volume
Redfin counted 22,295 homes sold statewide in September 2026, down from 23,387 a year earlier, a drop of about 4.7%. C.A.R.'s seasonally adjusted annual pace of single-family sales was 260,410, down 3.4% from August and 6.5% from September 2025. Year-to-date, C.A.R. had sales up 0.8%, so the fall slowdown followed a slightly stronger first half.
Speed and pricing power
The typical California home sold in 41 days in September 2026 on Redfin's count, two days faster than a year earlier but far slower than the 27 days of September 2023. Homes sold for 100.2% of list price on average, up from 99.6%. C.A.R.'s single-family homes sold in a median of 29 days, against 32 a year earlier, and sold at 98.8% of list.
Supply
C.A.R.'s Unsold Inventory Index, the months it would take to sell every listing at the current pace, was 3.7 months in September 2026, up from 3.6 a year earlier. Active listings were 0.5% higher than a year before. A balanced market is usually described as five to six months, so most of California remains short of homes for sale even with sales down.
What the trend shows: three years of a flat market
Since mortgage rates jumped in 2022, California's market has moved sideways. Redfin's September median sale price was $715,000 in 2023, $738,000 in 2024, $745,745 in 2025 and $752,837 in 2026, a total rise of about 5.3% in three years. The 2026 high so far was $779,000 in May, the usual spring peak, before the median eased back over the summer.
Monthly sales have barely changed either. Redfin's statewide count has stayed between roughly 20,500 and 23,900 a month since mid-2023. Days on market have lengthened from the high 20s in 2023 to the low and mid 40s since mid-2025, and the average sale-to-list ratio slipped below 100% through most of 2025 and 2026. That pattern is typical of a market where buyers can afford less at current rates and many owners stay put because their existing loan carries a lower rate than a new one would.
Zillow shows the same split between regions. Its California typical value rose 13.3% over five years, but Contra Costa County fell 3.0% and Humboldt County fell 10.1% in that time, while Orange County rose 36.6% and Imperial County 31.7%.
How fast homes sell, county by county
Market speed varies far more than price change. The table shows Redfin's September 2026 county figures, which may still be revised: median days on market, months of supply, average sale-to-list ratio, share of homes that sold above list price, and the change in inventory from a year earlier. Counties are ordered roughly from fastest to slowest.
| County | Median days on market | Months of supply | Sale-to-list | Sold above list | Inventory vs 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco | 14 | 2 | 119.3% | 78% | -18.3% |
| San Mateo | 14 | 1.8 | 104.2% | 55% | -7.3% |
| Alameda | 18 | 2.4 | 107.3% | 53% | -6.7% |
| Santa Clara | 19 | 2.2 | 102.3% | 50% | +34.6% |
| Contra Costa | 28 | 2.6 | 101.7% | 39% | -4.3% |
| Sacramento | 31 | 2.9 | 99.6% | 31% | +7.0% |
| San Diego | 33 | 3.1 | 98.9% | 29% | +0.2% |
| Kern | 47 | 4.4 | 98.7% | 26% | -0.4% |
| Orange | 47 | 3.3 | 98.8% | 25% | +2.3% |
| Fresno | 48 | 3.6 | 99.0% | 32% | -0.9% |
| Placer | 48 | 3.1 | 98.1% | 20% | -3.7% |
| Ventura | 51 | 3.7 | 98.5% | 26% | +3.8% |
| Los Angeles | 52 | 4.5 | 99.2% | 32% | +0.6% |
| San Bernardino | 54 | 4.6 | 98.9% | 30% | -1.1% |
| Riverside | 56 | 4.2 | 98.8% | 25% | -7.2% |
| Lake | 101 | 8.5 | 97.0% | 7% | -8.3% |
The Bay Area is the only part of the state where most homes still sell above asking. In San Francisco 78% of homes sold over list and the average sale came in at 119.3% of the list price, reflecting the local habit of pricing low to draw offers. At the other end, Lake County homes took a median of 101 days, with 8.5 months of supply. Santa Clara County's inventory was 34.6% higher than a year earlier, the biggest jump among large counties, which gives buyers there more choice than in 2025.
Every county has its own monthly data page; the California market data page lists all 58.
Regional differences across California
C.A.R.'s regional single-family medians for September 2026 show which parts of the state are gaining and which are not. Local market pages give city-level detail.
San Francisco Bay Area: fastest market
The Bay Area median was $1,325,000, up 1.9% on the year and 4.2% from August. Homes in San Mateo and San Francisco counties sold in a median of 14 days on Redfin's count. Inventory is tight in San Francisco (down 18.3% on the year) but loosening in Santa Clara County. Local detail: San Jose housing market.
Southern California: steady prices, slower sales
Southern California's median was $895,000, up 3.0%. Los Angeles County homes took a median of 52 days with 4.5 months of supply, and county sales were 7.8% lower than a year earlier. San Diego County sold faster, at 33 days. See the Los Angeles and San Diego pages.
Inland Empire: the longest waits in the south
Riverside and San Bernardino counties had the longest selling times of the big southern counties, 56 and 54 days, and 4.2 and 4.6 months of supply. Riverside County's inventory was 7.2% lower than a year before. See the Riverside housing market page.
Central Coast: highest annual gain
C.A.R.'s Central Coast median was $1,049,500, up 4.4% from a year earlier, the strongest gain of the five regions, though it slipped 2.4% from August. Small sales counts in coastal towns make monthly figures jumpy.
Central Valley and Sacramento: flat
The Central Valley median was $500,000, the same as August and as a year earlier. Sacramento County was one of the quicker inland markets at 31 days, but inventory was 7.0% higher than a year before. See the Sacramento housing market page.
Far North: the only region with falling prices
The Far North median fell 3.4% to $377,150. Rural counties with few sales, such as Lake, Plumas and Trinity, showed some of the longest selling times in the state, from 91 to 116 days on Redfin's count.
What is driving the California housing market
Mortgage rates and the lock-in effect
Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed average was 7.24% for the week of October 29, 2026. C.A.R.'s chief economist expects the lock-in effect, where owners with low-rate loans hold off on selling, to keep many potential sellers on the sidelines, even as inventory loosens slowly.
Affordability
C.A.R.'s second-quarter 2026 affordability index found that 19% of California households could afford the median single-family home, down from 22% in the first quarter. The minimum qualifying income was $228,400. When fewer households qualify, sales fall before prices do.
Jobs and population
The state's unemployment rate was 5.1% in September 2026, down from 5.5% a year earlier, and nonfarm employment was 129,300 jobs higher than in September 2025, according to the Employment Development Department. The Department of Finance estimated a population decline of about 54,000 in 2025, to 39,593,000, with net domestic out-migration of 288,600. A flat population caps demand growth.
New supply
California added 115,165 housing units on net in 2025, including 29,710 accessory dwelling units, and lost 11,160 units to the Eaton and Palisades fires, per the Department of Finance. New construction of 116,471 units is small next to a stock of over 15 million homes, which is why inventory stays tight. Rules for backyard units are in our California ADU rules guide.
Insurance
Home insurance has become a closing risk in fire-prone areas. Buyers should get a quote during the inspection period. See the California homeowners insurance guide and the FAIR Plan guide.
Is now a good time to buy a house in California?
It depends on your timeline and your county, not the statewide headline. What the data supports:
- Negotiating room is real outside the Bay Area. In most southern and inland counties homes sold below list on average in September 2026, and fewer than a third sold over asking. Zillow's figures show 24% to 30% of listings in the Los Angeles, San Diego, Riverside and Sacramento metros had a price cut in September 2026.
- Prices are not falling fast. Waiting for a crash has not paid off since 2022. C.A.R. forecasts modest gains of 0.8% for 2026 and 1.4% for 2027.
- The rate matters more than the price. A one-point drop in rate on a $600,000 loan saves roughly $400 a month. If you buy now, budget for today's payment, not a future refinance.
- Plan to stay at least five years. With flat prices, buying and selling costs take years to recover. See how to buy a house in California and California closing costs.
Is now a good time to sell a house in California?
For most long-time owners the price is near the top of its range, but buyers are pickier. Points to weigh:
- Prices are at or near their highs. Zillow's statewide value is 2.1% off its peak, and seven counties hit new highs in September 2026.
- Price it right the first time. Homes in Los Angeles, Orange and Inland Empire counties took seven to eight weeks to sell. Overpriced listings sit and then cut.
- Know your tax position. Long-time owners may face capital gains above the federal exclusion, and a move can change your Prop 13 base. See capital gains on a California home sale and Prop 19.
- Your next purchase is in the same market. If you are buying in California too, you sell into and buy from the same conditions. Read how to sell a house in California.
California housing market forecast for 2027
This site does not publish its own forecast. The best-known outlook is C.A.R.'s, released October 7, 2026:
| C.A.R. forecast measure | 2025 | 2026 (projected) | 2027 (forecast) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Single-family home sales | 271,100 | 268,100 (-1.1%) | 277,900 (+3.7%) |
| Median single-family price | $875,600 | $882,200 (+0.8%) | $894,400 (+1.4%) |
| Housing affordability index | 19% | 20% | 20% |
| 30-year fixed rate (average) | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% |
| California unemployment rate | n/a | 5.5% | 5.4% |
C.A.R. expects the market to stay subdued through the end of 2026 and demand to improve modestly in 2027, with the shortage of homes for sale supporting prices. It projects California nonfarm job growth of 0.3% in both years. Treat any forecast as one scenario: C.A.R.'s rate assumption of 6.6% is below the 7.24% Freddie Mac average of late October 2026, and a higher rate would mean fewer sales.